Robust Portfolio Selection with Distributional Uncertainty and Integer Constraints

Expand
  • 1 School of Mathematics and Finance, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, Anhui, China;
    2 Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, Sichuan, China;
    3 School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China;
    4 Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
    5 NUS Business School and the Logistics Institute-Asia Pacific, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore

Received date: 2022-03-16

  Revised date: 2022-10-12

  Online published: 2025-03-20

Abstract

This paper studies a robust portfolio selection problem with distributional ambiguity and integer constraint. Different from the assumption that the expected returns of risky assets are known, we define an ambiguity set containing the true probability distribution based on Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In contrast to the traditional portfolio optimization model, the invested amounts of risky assets are integers, which is more in line with the real trading scenario. For tractability, we transform the resulting semiinfinite programming into a convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem by using Fenchel duality. To solve the convex MINLP problem efficiently, a modified generalized Benders decomposition (GBD) method is proposed. Through the back-test of real market data, the performance of the proposed model is not sensitive to the input parameters. Therefore, the proposed method has much importance value for both individual and institutional investors.

Cite this article

Ri-Peng Huang, Ze-Shui Xu, Shao-Jian Qu, Xiao-Guang Yang, Mark Goh . Robust Portfolio Selection with Distributional Uncertainty and Integer Constraints[J]. Journal of the Operations Research Society of China, 2025 , 13(1) : 56 -82 . DOI: 10.1007/s40305-023-00466-4

References

[1] Markowitz, H.:Portfolio selection. J. Finance 7(1), 77-91(1952)
[2] Konno, H., Yamazaki, H.:Mean-absolute deviation portfolio optimization model and its applications to Tokyo stock market. Manag. Sci. 37(5), 519-531(1991)
[3] Konno, H., Waki, H., Yuuki, A.:Portfolio optimization under lower partial risk measures. Asia-Pacific Finance Mark. 9, 127-140(2002)
[4] Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.:Expected hesitant var for tail decision making under probabilistic hesitant fuzzy environment. Appl. Soft Comput. 60, 297-311(2017)
[5] Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.:Portfolio selection and risk investment under the hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowl.-Based Syst. 144, 21-31(2018)
[6] Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.:Hesitant fuzzy linguistic portfolio model with variable risk appetite and its application in the investment ratio calculation. Appl. Soft Comput. 84, 105719(2019)
[7] Rockafellar, R.T., Uryasev, S.:Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. J. Risk 29(1), 1071-1074(2000)
[8] Rockafellar, R.T., Uryasev, S.:Conditional value-at-riskfor general loss distributions. J. Bank. Finance 26(7), 1443-1471(2002)
[9] Zhu, S.-S., Fukushima, M.:Worst-case conditional Value-at-Risk with application to robust portfolio management. Oper. Res. 57(5), 1155-1168(2009)
[10] Pflug, G.C.:Some remarks on the value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk. Probab. Constrained Optim. 49, 272-281(2000)
[11] Konno, H., Yamamoto, R.:Global optimization versus integer programming in portfolio optimization under nonconvex transaction costs. J. Glob. Optim. 32(2), 207-219(2005)
[12] Li, H.-L., Tsai, J.:A distributed computation algorithm for solving portfolio problems with integer variables. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 186(2), 882-891(2008)
[13] Bonami, P., Lejeune, M.A.:An exact solution approach for portfolio optimization problems under stochastic and integer constraints. Oper. Res. 57(3), 650-670(2009)
[14] Wang, M.-H., Xu, C.-X., Xu, F.-M., Xue, H.-G.:A mixed 0-1 LP for index tracking problem with CVaR risk constraints. Ann. Oper. Res. 196(1), 591-609(2012)
[15] Wang, S.-M., Wang, B., Watada, J.:Adaptive budget-portfolio investment optimization under risk tolerance ambiguity. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 25(2), 363-376(2017)
[16] El Ghaoui, L., Oks, M., Oustry, F.:Worst-case value-at-risk and robust portfolio optimization:a conic programming approach. Oper. Res. 51(4), 543-556(2003)
[17] Goldfarb, D., Iyengar, G.:Robust portfolio selection problems. Math. Oper. Res. 28(1), 1-38(2003)
[18] Zymler, S., Rustem, B., Kuhn, D.:Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 210(2), 410-424(2017)
[19] Lotfi, S., Zenios, S.A.:Robust VaR and CVaR optimization under joint ambiguity in distributions, means, and covariances. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 269(2), 556-576(2018)
[20] Min, L.-Y., Dong, J.-W., Liu, J.-W., Gong, X.-M.:Robust mean-risk portfolio optimization using machine learning-based trade-off parameter. Appl. Soft Comput. 113, 107948(2021)
[21] Kang, Z.-L., Li, X., Li, Z.-F., Zhu, S.-S.:Data-driven robust mean-CVaR portfolio selection under distribution ambiguity. Quant. Finance 19, 105-121(2019)
[22] Kang, Z.-L., Li, X.-Y., Li, Z.-F.:Mean-CVaR portfolio selection model with ambiguity in distribution and attitude. J. Ind. Manag. Optim. 16(2020)
[23] Luan, F., Zhang, W.-G., Liu, Y.-J.:Robust international portfolio optimization with worst-case meanCVaR. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 303, 877-890(2022)
[24] Benati, S., Conde, E.:A relative robust approach on expected returns with bounded CVaR for portfolio selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 296, 332-352(2022)
[25] Huang, R.-P., Qu, S.-J., Yang, X.-G., Xu, F.-M., Xu, Z.-S., Zhou, W.:Sparse portfolio selection with uncertain probability distribution. Appl. Intell. 51, 6665-6684(2021)
[26] Goh, J., Sim, M.:Distributionally robust optimization and its tractable approximations. Oper. Res. 58(4), 902-917(2010)
[27] Delage, E., Ye, Y.:Distributionally robust optimization under moment uncertainty with application to data-driven problems. Oper. Res. 58(3), 595-612(2010)
[28] Zymler, S., Kuhn, D., Rustem, B.:Distributionally robust joint chance constraints with second-order moment information. Math. Program. 137(1-2), 167-198(2013)
[29] Wang, Z.-Z., Glynn, P.W., Ye, Y.-Y.:Likelihood robust optimization for data-driven problems. CMS 13(2), 241-261(2016)
[30] Rujeerapaiboon, N., Kuhn, D., Wiesemann, W.:Robust growth-optimal portfolios. Manag. Sci. 62(7), 2090-2109(2016)
[31] Postek, K., Bental, A., Den Hertog, D., Melenberg, B.:Robust optimization with ambiguous stochastic constraints under mean and dispersion information. Oper. Res. 66(3), 814-833(2018)
[32] Han, Y.-F., Qu, S.-J., Wu, Z., Huang, R.-P.:Robust consensus models based on minimum cost with an application to marketing plan. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 37(4), 5655-5668(2019)
[33] Lee, S., Moon, I.:Robust empty container repositioning considering foldable containers. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 280(3), 909-925(2020)
[34] Gokalp, E., Umit, B.:A robust disaster preparedness model for effective and fair disaster response. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 280(2), 479-494(2020)
[35] Huang, R.-P., Qu, S.-J., Yang, X.-G., Liu, Z.-M.:Multi-stage distributionally robust optimization with risk aversion. J. Ind. Manag. Optim. 17(1), 233-259(2021)
[36] Ren, L., Zhu, B., Xu, Z.-S.:Robust consumer preference analysis with a social network. Inf. Sci. 566, 379-400(2021)
[37] Calafiore, G.C.:Ambiguous risk measures and optimal robust portfolios. SIAM J. Optim. 18, 853-877(2007)
[38] Jiang, R.-W., Guan, Y.-P.:Data-driven chance constrained stochastic program. Math. Program. 158, 291-327(2016)
[39] Ji, R., Lejeune, M.A., Fan, Z.:Distributionally robust portfolio optimization with linearized STARR performance measure. Quant. Finance 22, 113-127(2022)
[40] Bonami, P., Biegler, L.T., Conn, A.R., Cornuejols, G., Grossmann, I.E., Laird, C.D., Lee, J., Lodi, A., Margot, F., Sawaya, N.W., et al.:An algorithmic framework for convex mixed integer nonlinear programs. Discrete Optim. 5(2), 186-204(2008)
[41] Gupta, O.K., Ravindran, A.:Branch and bound experiments in convex nonlinear integer programming. Manag. Sci. 31(12), 1533-1546(1985)
[42] Leandro, P.:Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2006)
[43] Ben-Tal, A., Hertog, D.D., Waegenaere, A.D., Melenberg, B., Rennen, G.:Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities. Manag. Sci. 59(2), 341-57(2013)
[44] Ben-Tal, A., Hertog, D.D., Vial, J.P.:Deriving robust counterparts of nonlinear uncertain inequalities. Math. Program. 149(1-2), 265-299(2015)
[45] Rockafellar, R.T.:Convex analysis. In:Princeton Landmarks in Mathematics and Physics (1970)
[46] Fan, K.:Minimax theorems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 39(1), 42-47(1953)
[47] Boyd, S., Vandenberghe, L.:Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 79-213(2004)
[48] Geoffrion, A.M.:Generalized benders decomposition. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 10(4), 237-260(1972)
[49] Fama, E.F., French, K.R.:Permanent and temporary components of stock prices. J. Polit. Econ. 96(2), 246-273(1988)
[50] Andrew, W.L.:Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59(5), 1279-1313(1991)
[51] Granger, C.W.J., Ding, Z.:Varieties of long memory models. J. Econ. 73(1), 61-77(1996)
[52] Henry, O.T.:Long memory in stock returns:some international evidence. Appl. Financial Econ. 12(10), 725-729(2002)
[53] Boubaker, H., Sghaier, N.:Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory:a copula based approach. J. Bank. Finance 37(2), 361-377(2013)
[54] Chen, C.Y., Chiang, T.C., Hardle,W.:Downside risk and stock returns in the G7 countries:an empirical analysis of their long-run and short-run dynamics. J. Bank. Finance 93(8), 21-32(2018)
[55] Löfberg, J.:Yalmip?:a toolbox for modeling and optimization in matlab. Optimization 2004(3), 284-289(2004)
[56] Jarque, C.M., Bera, A.K.:Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Econ. Lett. 7(4), 313-318(1981)
[57] Sharpe, W.F.:The sharpe ratio. J. Portf. Manag. 21(1), 49-58(1994)
[58] Mencia, J., Sentana, E.:Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation. J. Econ. 153(2), 105-121(2009)
[59] Aragon, G.O., Ferson, W.E.:Portfolio performance evaluation. Found. Trends Finance 2(2), 83-190(2006)
[60] Fama, E.F., French, K.R.:The value premium and the CAPM. J. Finance 61(5), 2163-2185(2006)
[61] DeMiguel, V.:Garlappi, Lorenzo, Uppal:Optimal versus naive diversification:How inefficient is the 1/n portfolio strategy?Rev. Financial Stud. 22(5), 1915-1953(2009)
[62] Goh, J., Sim, M.:Robust optimization made easy with ROME. Oper. Res. 59(4), 973-985(2009)
Options
Outlines

/